"Friday:Pittsburgh vs St.Louis"
Jeff Alexander
Free Play for July 30, 2010
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -139
Bottom Line: We'll take the Cards on the run line at home considering how dominant Carpenter has been against Pittsburgh. He is 11-1 (13-1 on the ML) in 14 career starts against the Bucs with an ERA of 2.29. 9 of those 13 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Pittsburgh starter Karstens has lost his last 3 starts, with the last 2 losses coming by 2 or more runs. Plus, Pittsburgh is 2-14 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season, losing to these opponents by an average score of 3.1 to 6.9.
Take the Cards at home on the run line with their ace on the hill.
"Friday: Seatle vs Minnesota"
Red Zone
Let's go Over tonight as the Twins host the Mariners @ 810.
The Twins are hot and they are hitting the ball well right, winners of 5 in row! They are poundimg the ball @ a close to .390 BA pace the last 7 games, They feast on a Seattle's M's hurler Fister who is 0-5 with a 5.17 ERA that was outscored 32-11 & they went O-fer in a 4 game series in Chicago. We also note that Fister is terrible on the road. The M's Fister has a super high ERA 5.74 and his BAA is close to .320. The Twins are hot batting an AL-best .286 vs. righties. These teams like to score against each other as both have had their last 4 games go over the total The Eastern Assassin will move all in on the OVER 8.5
"MLB Series Betting- N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay
By Doug Upstone "
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
With the summer slipping into August this weekend, the baseball pennant races start to take shape with more meaningful games over the next two months. What better way to start building the momentum than with the two best teams in baseball. The first place New York Yankees (65-36, +7.8 units) head south to visit Tampa Bay (63-38, +6.5), who trails by two games in the loss column.
The atmosphere should be electric with all three games sold out and for New York; they have other side bar stories. This is the Yankees first team visit since the passing of George Steinbrenner who resided in Tampa. Alex Rodriguez will continue his elusive quest for home run No. 600. When asked if he feels pressure after failing to connect for a long ball in seven straight games, A-Rod answered this way. “We’re winning, so this is fun,” Rodriguez said. “I’m focusing on something more important: a pennant race.”
The Rays picked the right time to get hot having won six in a row and a continuation of such play would jettison them into first place by the end of the weekend. “I’m sure there’s going to be a vibe,” Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. “They’re playing well. We’re playing well. It’s going to be interesting. I know we’re going to be excited to play.”
The pitching matchup has two young hurlers. Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), after a brilliant start has had rocky moments of late, being tagged for five runs or more in three of previous five starts. Location has been Hughes downfall and the Yankees are only 14-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. Online sports betting outlets have New York as -107 ML wager, as the Yankees seem to thrive against top notch competition with a 12-3 record in road games when playing against teams with a 62% or higher win percentage in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay is 100-48 in home games against right-handed starters the past three seasons and sends Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32) up the hill. Davis has gotten in a nice groove with three consecutive victories and 2.11 ERA. “Every series is important, but this is a big series for us to go out and win some games against them to stay up there with them,” Davis told the Rays’ official website. “If we can do that, then we’ll be in a good situation.” The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts against New York this year and A-Rod has two jacks off of him.
Game 1 Edge: New York
The Rays are hoping outfielders B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are close to 100 percent after missing time this week with sprained ankle and lower back stiffness respectively, getting ready for New York. The second game of the series will also feature Matt “no-hitter” Garza (11-5. 4.08), who faced the minimum 27 batters (one walk) his last time out. Garza was able to work effectively up in the strike zone against depleted Detroit lineup. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Garza’s starts at Tropicana Field, where they have won 10 of 11 coming into the series.
The Bronx Bombers arrive in St. Pete’s having won eight of 11 and have split eight meetings with the Rays. Manager Joe Girardi’s club began the series 31-20 in the visiting gray uniforms, thanks to being victorious in 16 of last 21 contests. Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54) started the season on shaky ground, but has since stabilized with 8-3 mark and 3.16 ERA. The Yanks are 36-16 in last 52 and have won four of last five Vazquez road starts. The Yankees right-hander is 5-5 (4.71) in last 10 starting assignments against Tampa Bay, with Carl Crawford batting .368 against him since 2006. Garza is 1-3 (3.26) vs New York and A-Rod (.467) and Nick Swisher (.500) have been the most troublesome batters he faces from that lineup.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay
The series finale from the Trop has C.C. Sabathia (13-4, 3.15) on a major roll. The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in last 10 outings and is 14-4 in August of late. He’s been tough all year on right-hand hitters, as they are batting only .234 against him. New York plays great all the time including during the day, with 25-12 record as they prepare for this TBS 1:30 Eastern tilt.
Tampa Bay will start James Shields (9-9, 4.79) who also possess quality August numbers with a 12-6 record. Shields has to start missing more bats, with opponents hitting .281 against him (.266 lifetime) and he is on career path for home runs allowed, already being taken deep 22 times. The Rays are equally effective in day games with 20-10 record and are 11-9 to commence the weekend as underdogs.
Game 3 Edge: New York
New York has won 26 of last 44 conflicts between these teams and is 12-9 at the Trop the past three years. Both teams are at the top of their games, both respecting, but do not fearing the other, which makes for fascinating series.
I’ve hit five straight weekend series wagers and though I’d like to see Tampa Bay win, I’m betting New York and here is why. Sometime next season I’ll write an article about this, but the Rays have double digit hits just once in past seven tries, which has me believing they are living off of great pitching. New York can match Tampa Bay in this area and shutdown their attack. Coincidently, the Yankees have nine or more base knocks in seven of previous nine games, suggesting they will score more runs and takes the series.
Sportsbooks series odds: New York -120, Tampa Bay -110
3Daily Winners Pick: New York
"Totals System totally contrarian in SoCal
By Doug Upstone "
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
There isn’t a person alive that participates in sports betting, be it a regular individual, wise guy, handicapper or the person on the other side of the counter taking the money that doesn’t love believing they have information that is different than most everyone else that can lead to winning sports wager.
This info is contrarian to your typical mainstream material and if you are convinced this places you in advantageous position to cash a winning ticket like few others will, you become more smug than a British Petroleum executive.
Out in Southern California, in the later stages of the afternoon, a very reliable total system will be put to the test when San Diego (59-40, +22.8 units) and Los Angeles (54-47, -2.3) play in a key NL West showdown.
The Dodgers have won five of seven with an offense that can aptly be described as offensive. In L.A.’s last seven trips to the ballpark, they have touched home plate a grand total of 12 times, that is 1.7 times per contest for those lacking a calculator. However, in their five victories the Dodgers pitching staff has four shutouts and permitted two runs in the other contest.
With Manny Ramirez on the DL for a third time, the Los Angeles front office did something to bolster the offense, trading for outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who is batting .310 and can still run, having 30 stolen bases. L.A. needs something having one or zero runs on the scoreboard 23 times this season.
The Dodgers lost 6-1 last night to San Diego and trail the Padres by seven games in the loss column. San Diego is no fluke with August just around the corner. The Padres have the best record in the National League and also have the largest run differential in the senior circuit at +94.
Mat Latos (11-4, 2.48 ERA) looks to continue his exceptional pitching streak that has him winning six in a row (The Padres have won his last seven starts) and he has a Major League best 0.80 ERA since June 22.
His mound opponent is Vincente Padilla (4-3, 3.41), whose been nearly as good with 1.04 ERA in his last five outings, with 3-1 record.
Oddsmakers have this contest at Un6.5 and if ever a game looked like an Under, this would be it except for this baseball system.
Play OVER on road teams against the total, after scoring one or less runs in a loss to a division rival; with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.
The logic behind this system is simple, the motivated visitor is expected to be extra focused off a loss to division opponent and in this case, the Dodgers could win the series and pick up ground on San Diego. It might be the year of the pitcher, yet historically in this spot, the road hurler has faltered and he and his team have allowed 5.8 runs per game. Over the past five years this total system is distinguished 37-13.
The average total score of these matchups has been 10.7 runs per game, which is 2.3 more runs than the typical line. No doubt these are two teams built for pitching, playing in a ballpark that yields runs sparingly. Could this be another 1-0 game, sure it could based on current form of the two starting pitchers.
Nevertheless, this system provokes a different kind of thinking and a 4-3 or 5-3 contest can certainly not be ruled out. Take some time to study this confrontation and determine if you are a contrarian thinker.
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
"3DW Line Moves - Crucial Betting Info
By Doug Upstone "
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
For the most part, online sports bettors are in agreement with money line numbers oddsmakers placed on the 15 games on the baseball board. However, there is greater division in thought about how the Totals should play out and I’ll examine those three contests along with money line adjustments.
Atlanta at Washington 7:05 EDT
After registering 6.4 runs in the past five games, Atlanta was all geared to see Stephen Strasburg of Washington. With S-squared a late scratch, Braves’ hitters must have been disappointed and tallied only five hits in 3-0 shutout last night. This evening it is a pair of veteran pitchers on the hill with Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) squaring off against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12). The total opened at 8 and has since fallen to 7.5, with solid provocation. Hudson is 9-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals and Hernandez is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in his last four matchups with Braves. With Atlanta 13-4 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game and the Nats 10-1 UNDER after a contest with a combined score of four runs or less this season, the direction of the money appears accurate.
Arizona at Philadelphia 7:05 EDT
The Phillies offense is crackling like expected, impressing those betting on sports with 6 runs per game during six-game winning streak. Roy Halladay (11-8, 2.28) will attempt to do his part in limiting the Arizona offense and the right-hander has permitted one or less runs in four of his last six starts. The Philadelphia hitters will look to dial in on the tosses of Edwin Jackson (6-9, 5.01), who has 6.85 ERA since throwing no-hitter on June 25. The total has headed downward for this NL conflict, starting at 8 and now at 7.5. Halladay could be expected to limit the D-Backs offensive output and is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) However, Jackson is very hittable and the Snakes bullpen ERA has 7.81 on the road and the club is 13-5 OVER after four or more consecutive losses this year. Not certain if the total is going the right way.
St. Louis at N.Y. Mets 7:10 EDT
In theory, the Mets were a sound underdog play on Tuesday, playing well at home against a Cardinals club that has failed in the road greys. New York won 8-2, raising home record to 31-16 (+12.8 units) and St. Louis fell to 21-29 (-6.6) as visitors. A matchup of left-handers has left sports bettors feeling more comfortable with the Metropolitans chances in Game 2 of the series. New York was a -119 ML choice at daybreak and has since jumped to -130 or higher. The Mets are 8-0 in home contests after batting .240 or worse over a 15-game span this campaign. While Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21) is having a brilliant rookie season, with the second lowest ERA among starting pitchers in baseball, Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79) is 50-16 after walking one or fewer hitters in each of his last two outings during his career. (Team's Record)
Baltimore at Toronto 7:05 EDT
Not sure what to make of this total sinking southward. This AL affair opened at 9.5 and has since gone to 9, which sort of made sense when Shawn Marcum was the scheduled starting pitcher for Toronto. The Blue Jays made a change to Brad Mills (7-4, 4.13 ERA in 16 starts for Triple-A Las Vegas), giving him his third Major League start and first of 2010. If you forget about the pitching switch, the Blue Jays are still 11-2 OVER at the Rogers Center vs. AL clubs scoring 4.7 or less runs game in the second half of the season since last year. Baltimore was again hammered 8-2 by Toronto and is 25-14 UNDER after scoring two runs or less and even with Jeremy Guthrie (4-10, 4.46) pitching better lately, the Orioles are 2-8 on the road with the lefty starter, who sports a 5.01 ERA in road uniform. Guthrie however, is 20-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year with average score 7.4 total runs.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego 10:05 EDT
It’s unusual to say the least a team would win five of six while scoring a grand total of 11 runs, yet that is precisely what the Dodgers have done in pulling to within six games in the loss column of San Diego. Linemakers had the team from L.A. as +114 underdogs, but sports betting online fans have preferred the pedigree of the Dodgers and they now sit +100 pooches. Los Angeles is a stellar 26-8 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span and thought provoking 15-1 after five straight times where they had less than 10 hits. With Hiroki Kuroda (8-8, 3.48) in better form than Clayton Richard (7.13 ERA in four July starts), the visitor might well be the right play.
3DW Bonus Info
Money Line Nugget
Seattle is 4-23 against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more since 2008.
Totals Nugget
Florida is 14-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season, with average total score of 6.9 RPG.
Run Line Nugget
Arizona is 0-11 against the run line in road games vs. good fielding teams, averaging 0.6 or fewer errors a game in 2010, losing by alarming 5.3 RPG.
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
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